Using the "Ownership Fade" slider
What is ownership?
Ownership refers to the popularity of individual players and is measured by the percent of lineups in a contest that have a specific player in them.
For example, if Aaron Nola is in 30% of lineups in an MLB tournament, then his ownership is 30%. You’ll see this information within the contests themselves once that player’s game has started.
How does it affect my lineups?
The higher you set your Ownership Fade, the more your lineups will favor lower owned players while if you set it negative you’ll favor highly owned players.
How does it work?
Before a tournament starts, there is no way to know for certain how popular each player will be that night, but there are signals that can point us in the right direction. We’ve built a model to take those signals and use them to generate accurate projections for each player’s ownership in a given slate.
Similar to our game and player projection process, simulations are a key step. Using our initial data set, we then simulate a large GPP lineup-by-lineup to determine the final ownership projections for each player.
How should I use it?
How to use Ownership Fade depends primarily on the size of the slate, payout structure of the contest, and your risk tolerance.
The more you fade, the more risk you take on because if highly owned players do well and you don’t have them, it’s going to be really hard to win; you need somebody else to do just as well just so you can catch up. However, if that 50% owned player has an off night and does poorly, all of those lineups now have a huge disadvantage compared to you.
Generally speaking, the fewer the games on a slate and the more top-heavy the payout structure, the higher you should set your Ownership Fade. In a cash game, you could go Neutral while in a winner-take-all GPP, you may go all the way to the top.
Additionally, the higher variance the sport, the more you should fade. That means set a higher Ownership Fade for Baseball than for Basketball. The reason for this is that the more variance a sport has, the less likely the “chalk” will have a big performance. In baseball, no batter is a sure thing, while in basketball there truly are some “must plays.”
Finally, the more risk averse you are, the less you should fade. With that in mind, if you’re playing a GPP I would caution against going lower than “Moderate.” It’s better to move down in stakes where you can take more risks than play too cautiously at higher stakes and sacrifice ROI.
Things to keep in mind
While higher ownership fade may lead to a higher ROI in the long run, it will lead to bigger swings in the short run. Remember, the top plays are the top plays for a reason-- it’s typically good players with good matchups so while you may win big when they have that off night, you’ll have a lot of stretches where the chalk just keeps hitting.
With a high Ownership Fade, you’re still likely to get some exposure to the more popular plays, unless you’ve also set Smart Diversity to low in which case it’s unlikely to see them in your lineups. This isn’t necessarily bad either way, but it’s something to be aware of as you get a feel for things.