Building a pool of high-upside lineups is only the first step. To beat DFS, you need to know which of those lineups can actually win in the contests you’re playing, against the opponents you’ll face.

The "best" lineup for a 200,000-entry Milly Maker often looks nothing like the "best" lineup for a 100-person single-entry. Factors like contest size, format, and payout structure completely change what success looks like, and you should expect your opponents’ strategies to shift accordingly.

In DFS, you’re betting against other people. Therefore, a lineup’s value is never absolute. It depends on how it performs relative to the field in the exact payout structure you’re facing.

To find profitable lineups, you have to recreate the contests you’re entering. That means measuring how your lineups perform as a whole, across thousands of realistic game scripts, against a field of opponent lineups tailored to that contest, and judged by its specific payout structure.

That’s exactly what Contest Sims do. They simulate your contests thousands of times with real game outcomes, realistic opponent lineups, and exact payout structures. Each lineup is evaluated across its full range of outcomes—how often it wins, min-cashes, or busts—culminating in its expected ROI (return on investment).

Contest Sims are the only way to judge your lineups in the full context of the contests you’ve entered.

Anything else is just guessing.

Contest Sims recreate your DFS contests from top to bottom. Every lineup is judged using:

Here’s the process:

Then repeat. Tens of thousands of times.

The result is a complete picture of each lineup’s range of outcomes: win rate, cash rate, and most importantly, profitability.

1. Upload Your Contest Entries File

Upload your contest entries file to SaberSim. Click the green upload icon in the Entry Editor. Download the template CSV, fill it out, and upload it.

SaberSim automatically configures sims for each contest, tailored to its payout structure, size, and entry limits. It also assigns realistic opponent fields using ownership projections for 13 different contest types.

Note: Uploaded contests cannot be removed from entries. To temporarily exclude a contest from sims, disable it via the Enabled column.

Contest table fields

Data in these columns is automatically pulled from your contest entries file and cannot be edited.

Sim Settings Window

Window where contest sim settings are matched. These settings influence how Contest Sims behave and are filled in automatically when you upload your contest entries file. These can also be edited.

Create sims for custom contests

Use Add Custom Contest Sim to define contests that are private, niche, or missing from the upload. Provide:

Note: Save the custom contest for reuse when applicable.

2. Build Your Lineups

Once entries are uploaded, click Build Lineups. SaberSim generates a pool of lineups powered by play-by-play simulations, already accounting for player skill, matchups, and correlations. These lineups are inherently optimized for upside.

3. Run Contest Sims

Contest Sims usually start automatically once lineups are built. If not, click the green Run Contest Sims button.

Note: Contest Sims require ownership and sim support to run. If errors occur, confirm the slate has site ownership projections available and is a sport currently supported by SaberSim’s simulations.

SaberSim then runs each lineup through your contests thousands of times, tracking standings, prizes, and profitability. You’ll see win %, cash rate, and ROI.

If you’re using default SaberSim Lineup Groups, contest sim data is automatically incorporated into your final portfolio via the diversification process.

Run Contest Sims after every build or rebuild, and re-run as needed throughout the slate.

Metrics available after contest sims run include:

This data goes beyond showing who projects well to show who actually wins when the slate plays out across thousands of realistic scenarios.

Contest Sims evaluate lineups the same way they’ll be judged in reality: as full lineups, against real opponents, in real contests.

When you upload entries, SaberSim configures each sim based on contest size, payout structure, entries, and opponent tendencies.

A simple but often overlooked truth: DFS is a competition. You’re not just betting on players, you’re competing against other lineups. A lineup’s value is relative to the field. That’s why SaberSim builds realistic opponent lineups for every sim.

Opponents don’t play the same way in a low-stakes 150-max as in a high-stakes single-entry, so SaberSim doesn’t model them the same. Instead, it builds multiple sets of opponent lineups using industry-aggregated projections that reflect actual construction and ownership trends.

And it all starts with SaberSim’s play-by-play simulation engine. Rather than rely on averages, every game is simulated one play at a time, incorporating coaching tendencies, weather, injuries, and in-game strategy. These scripts generate natural correlation—when a QB goes off, his receivers often do too.

Each simulation then ranks lineups, awards prizes, and tracks profitability. Running this process tens of thousands of times produces a complete distribution of outcomes:

Simulations update continuously with breaking news, injury reports, or ownership shifts. During the slate, they can even incorporate live data for profitable late swap decisions.

The result: a system that tells you which lineups are truly built to win your contests, against your opponents, under your payout structures.

In conclusion, Contest Sims give you a direct view of how your lineups perform against realistic competition. By simulating your entries against field lineups that reflect actual public strategies, they move beyond ownership percentages to show you how your builds truly stack up. This provides not only a clearer signal of long-term profitability but also valuable insights into how the field plays, helping you refine your approach and optimize your strategy for real contests.

Contest Sims are SaberSim’s tool for finding your most profitable lineups by recreating the contests you’re actually playing. They simulate your contests using real game outcomes, realistic opponent fields, and exact payout structures to evaluate the true profitability of each lineup.

This matters because DFS isn’t played in a vacuum. A lineup’s value is never absolute—it’s always relative to the field and the payout structure. Contest Sims mirror the exact conditions you’ll face, making them the only way to know if a lineup is truly +EV.

DFS isn’t just about player projections—it’s about competition. You’re betting on how entire lineups perform against other people, in specific contests, across many possible game outcomes.

To identify profitable lineups, you need to measure how they perform as full entries, across thousands of realistic simulations, against opponent lineups tailored to each contest and judged by its payout structure. Anything less is just guessing.

This directly reflects the third truth of DFS: you’re playing against other people. A lineup that looks great on raw projection might be worthless if everyone else is playing it. Contest Sims separate “good-looking” lineups from lineups that are actually profitable in practice.

Each contest sim follows the same simple but powerful process:

This process is repeated tens of thousands of times to reveal every lineup’s full range of outcomes.

Instead of a single, misleading average, you see the entire distribution—win rates, min-cash frequency, bust potential, and ROI volatility. That’s the only way to evaluate lineups the same way they’ll be judged in reality.

The key is that every input mirrors reality as closely as possible, because the player with the most accurate picture of reality has the edge.

Contest Sims refresh anytime new game simulations run. That includes updates for injury news, usage shifts, weather changes, or other factors. Opponent fields and ownership projections are also rebuilt automatically, and lineup ROI is recalculated in real time.

This ensures you’re always working from the latest information, not stale assumptions. In DFS—especially sports like NBA where news breaks late—that accuracy can be the difference between winning and burning your entry fees.

Yes. You can upload and evaluate any set of lineups—even those built in another optimizer. Contest Sims will grade them based on performance against the simulated field for your contests.

This is powerful because it lets you stress-test any lineup pool. If a non-SaberSim lineup can’t show long-term profitability against simulated contests, it’s likely just a “pretty build” with no real edge.

The Create Custom Contest feature lets you define your own contest parameters and simulate lineups when SaberSim’s database doesn’t include that contest. This is useful for private contests, niche formats, or exclusive games.

Custom contests still use SaberSim’s core engine—real game sims, realistic field behavior, and payout curves—so your lineups are judged with the same rigor as any major GPP.

Each contest has unique dynamics that affect profitability:

SaberSim accounts for all of these factors so your lineups are evaluated in the actual conditions you’ll face. This reinforces the truth that the best lineup depends on the contest.

Field lineups are SaberSim’s projection of what your opponents are likely to play in a given contest. SaberSim builds large sets of these to represent realistic fields across contest types.

Your lineup pool is the set of lineups you build to play against those fields. Contest Sims evaluate your pool by testing it against the projected field lineups.

Put simply: field lineups are the competition, your pool is the bet, and Contest Sims is the test that shows which bets are worth taking.

Pre-contest sims are based on expected ownership and projected fields. Flashback sims re-simulate the slate using the actual lineups played. If results differ, it usually means the field built lineups differently than expected, or late news shifted slate dynamics.

This highlights why DFS is high-variance: even the best projections can’t perfectly anticipate how the field will react. But over time, pre-contest sims remain the most powerful way to test your process and ensure your strategy is +EV.

Full contest simulations are available with the SaberSim Ultimate plan and above.

If the changes are significant (like late-breaking news or injuries) and you have enough time before lock, it’s recommended to rebuild your lineups so that the new projections are reflected in your lineup builds.

Simply rerunning Contest Sims without rebuilding means your lineups are still anchored to old assumptions. Rebuilding ensures your pool adapts to the new reality of the slate.

Removing lineups with negative ROI is our general recommendation, but there are scenarios where slightly negative ROI lineups might still be worth including.

If you need to meet exposure or diversification requirements across contests, or if the lineup has low duplication in a large field, negative ROI lineups could be viable.

Focus on the overall portfolio’s expected value rather than obsessing over each individual lineup. Negative ROI lineups can sometimes contribute positively to your portfolio’s overall balance or upside.