Contest Flashback
Overview
Daily Fantasy Sports (DFS) is a game of variance. Even the best players lose most nights, with nearly all profits coming from a handful of outlier wins. If you judge your play only by last night’s results, you’ll miss the bigger picture.
That’s why SaberSim built the Contest Flashback tool. Available for DraftKings slates, Flashback lets you review past contests by re-simulating them 100,000 times.
Instead of relying on one random outcome, it shows what would have happened if the slate ran over and over again.
This tool is essential for two reasons:
Evaluating your own play. Was your strategy profitable over time, even if you lost on a given slate?
Studying the sharks. Who are the consistently profitable players, and how can you learn from their lineup construction?
Contest Flashback helps you separate luck from skill, understand variance, and confirm that you’re building a process designed to win over the long run.
How It Works
Flashback doesn’t just replay the previous night’s results; it recreates the slate from scratch using the same Contest Sims that power SaberSim.
All lineups are collected. After a DraftKings contest completes, SaberSim takes all of the real lineups that were actually played in that contest.
Re-simulation. These real lineups are run through 100,000 slate simulations using SaberSim’s play-by-play game engine.
Performance measurement. Each lineup is tested against realistic outcomes across thousands of game scripts.
Profitability measured. Metrics like Sim ROI, Median Profit, and 99th Percentile Profit reveal the true range of results those lineups would generate over time.
Why this matters: a single night’s results are mostly noise. One slate can make a losing player look brilliant or a sharp player look awful. Re-simulation strips out the variance and delivers the signal—whether your lineups are actually profitable over the long run.
Instead of asking “Did I win last night?” Contest Flashback answers the real question: “Am I building profitable portfolios that win over time?”
How to Use It
To get value from Contest Flashback, make it part of your post-slate routine.
Access the Tool
Go to the Contest Tab in SaberSim for any past DraftKings slate.
Click on the name of the contest to load Flashback (larger contests may take longer).
Key Metrics
Sim ROI. Positive means your process was profitable long-term, even if you lost money on that slate. Consistently negative (especially worse than the rake) signals leaks in your process.
Sim Median Profit. Represents your “typical night”—helps set realistic expectations.
Sim 99th Profit. Represents your “ceiling night”—what your big win looks like when everything breaks right.
Average Dupes. Especially important for showdown; shows how unique (or duplicated) your lineups were.
Tabs & Views
Users Tab. Core analysis view. Compare yourself to the field, sorted by Sim ROI. Filter by entry count to see how you did against players with similar volume. Study sharks with consistently positive Sim ROI.
Leaderboard Tab. Shows actual results. Compare with Users Tab to separate variance (who won last night) from skill (who would win long-term).
Mine Tab. Focuses only on your portfolio. See whether your lineups were profitable long-term, regardless of the one-night outcome.
Learning from Top Players
Contest Flashback is also a study tool. You can:
Identify the best players. Filter large-field contests and sort by Sim ROI to see who consistently wins.
Analyze their strategies.
Check player exposures and stack construction.
Compare their diversification curve to yours.
See how they allocate risk across lineups and contests.
Answer your own questions. Unsure about a leverage play or stack type? Flashback shows how sharp players approached it.
The key is not to copy one slate or one player, but to look for patterns across contests and top players.
Why It Matters
DFS is a portfolio game. Most nights you’ll lose, even with good lineups. Flashback reminds you that profitability isn’t about single outcomes, it’s about repeated process.
Clarify variance. Don’t abandon a winning process just because you lost one night.
Spot leaks. Repeatedly negative Sim ROI highlights sports, contest types, or strategies that need work.
Borrow edges. See how consistently profitable players structure their lineups and exposures.
Conclusion
Contest Flashback is one of the most important tools SaberSim offers. It bridges the gap between short-term results and long-term profitability.
Used consistently, it will:
Keep you grounded when variance swings against you.
Help you refine your process by exposing leaks.
Provide repeatable lessons from top players.
In terms of the Saber System, Flashback lives in the “Evaluate the Field” step. It shows you whether your lineups performed profitably against real opponents, in real contests, over the long run.
If you’re serious about DFS, make Contest Flashback part of your daily review. It’s not about celebrating wins or lamenting losses—it’s about sharpening your process, building profitable portfolios, and preparing for the next slate.
FAQs
What is the SaberSim Contest Flashback tool?
Contest Flashback is SaberSim’s post-slate analysis feature that lets you review past DraftKings contests through the lens of simulations instead of raw results. It takes every real lineup entered into a contest and re-simulates the slate 100,000 times using SaberSim’s Contest Sims.
Each lineup is graded not on one random outcome, but on its long-term profitability if that slate were played over and over. This provides a clear, repeatable way to separate skill from variance and to understand whether your process is actually profitable.
Why should I use Contest Flashback?
DFS is a game of variance. Even the sharpest players lose most nights, with nearly all profits coming from a small number of big wins. Judging yourself by a single slate leads to false conclusions.
Contest Flashback strips away the noise by testing your lineups across thousands of realistic outcomes. It answers the question that really matters: “Am I building profitable lineups that win over time?”
It’s also one of the best ways to study the top DFS players in the world. Instead of obsessing over who happened to win on one night, Flashback highlights who consistently shows positive simulated ROI. Over time, this becomes one of the most powerful ways to sharpen your process and adopt strategies that actually scale.
How do I access Contest Flashback?
Currently available for DraftKings slates only
Go to the Contest tab on any past slate
Click on the contest name to load Contest Flashback (note: larger contests may take longer to process)
What is Sim ROI and how should I use it?
Sim ROI is the primary metric for evaluating DFS play. It shows the average return you’d expect if the contest were played out 100,000 times.
Positive Sim ROI → Your lineups are profitable long-term, even if you lost that night.
Negative Sim ROI → Normal in the short term, but if it’s consistently negative (especially below the rake, ~-10% to -16%), it signals a leak in your process.
Note on late swap: Flashback does not currently incorporate in-slate swaps—it re-simulates contests as if they played from the original lock. This means if you made strong late swaps, your actual edge may not be fully reflected in Sim ROI. That doesn’t mean late swap is wrong; it remains one of the most powerful edges in DFS.
What about Sim Median Profit and Sim 99th Profit?
These metrics give context to your risk/reward profile:
Sim Median Profit = your “typical night” result across simulations. Often close to break-even, reflecting how most nights play out.
Sim 99th Profit = your “big night” ceiling—the 1-in-100 scenario where everything hits.
Together, they help set realistic expectations: DFS is about surviving the median nights and being prepared to capitalize on your 99th-percentile outcomes.
How do I study top players?
Flashback is one of the best ways to reverse-engineer winning strategies:
Open a large-field, high-stakes contest.
In the Users tab, filter for players who maxed out entries.
Sort by Sim ROI to identify who is truly profitable.
Click into a player’s name:
Lineups tab → Review the actual builds they played.
Projections tab → Study exposures, stacking choices, salary usage, and diversification.
Tip: Write down lineup questions while you’re building—e.g., “Should I double-stack here?” or “Is this leverage play worth it?” The next day, use Flashback to see how top players approached those same decisions. This builds intuition far faster than watching one-night winners.
What if my results are consistently negative?
Variance guarantees losing nights, but repeated negative Sim ROI across multiple slates signals that your current process isn’t working.
This isn’t a dead end—it’s a feedback loop. Use Flashback to pinpoint where profitable players differ from you: are they stacking differently? Diversifying more smoothly? Taking different leverage spots?
SaberSim also supports improvement with Office Hours, content, Discord, and support channels where you can ask process-driven questions and get feedback.
Does Contest Flashback tell me how to build better lineups tomorrow?
No. Flashback is not a prediction tool—it doesn’t say who to play on the next slate.
What it does show is whether your process is fundamentally profitable. Once you have that signal, you can refine your exposures, stacking strategies, and contest selection with confidence.
Think of it as your training ground for the future, not a crystal ball for tomorrow.
Why do some players who finished high on the leaderboard have negative Sim ROI?
Because DFS outcomes are noisy. A single outlier play can catapult a lineup into first place, even if that lineup was unprofitable long-term.
Flashback exposes this gap: the Leaderboard tab shows variance, while the Users tab shows truth. A top-10 finish with negative Sim ROI often means someone ran hot.
A poor finish with positive Sim ROI means the player’s process was strong but variance didn’t cooperate that night.
Can I compare contests of different sizes and stakes in Flashback?
Yes, but comparisons must be made in context.
Small, soft contests like single-entries or 20-maxes often show higher Sim ROI opportunities than massive 200,000-entry GPPs.
Top-heavy payout structures lower average ROI but increase variance.
The most useful comparisons are like vs. like: compare your 20-max play to other 20-max players, or your single-entry lineups to the rest of that field.
How do I know if I’m improving when using Flashback?
Look for trends across time instead of one-night samples:
Is your Sim ROI trending upward or stabilizing above the rake?
Is your median profit creeping closer to break-even?
Do your 99th percentile profits align with the contests you’re targeting?
DFS improvement doesn’t always show in bankroll swings right away. Flashback gives you a measurable way to confirm whether your strategy is evolving in the right direction—toward long-term profitability.