Getting started with SaberSim for betting
Our two betting tools
The first tool is what you see when you go to the "Sports Betting" tab in the app. This evaluates the traditional bets (moneylines, spreads, and totals) and highlights any profitable opportunities .
The second one is our Prop Betting Calculator (available in the "Prop Betting" tab) which lets you put in your favorite prop bets and we’ll evaluate the odds to tell you if we think it’s a good bet or not.
How we get our edge
Before I walk through those, let’s talk about how we actually come up with the numbers themselves, because without a good model, none of this matters .
We’ve built and refined a one-of-a-kind algorithm that simulates every single game, play-by-play, thousands of times, giving you incredibly accurate projections .
These projections automatically update right until the game starts .
If any factor around the game change (like a player’s injury status or the weather report or even the umpire or referee), we’ll run a new set of simulations and update the app with the latest projections .
By simulating out each game, we not only get strong score projections, but we also are able to determine the frequency any event occurs .
This is huge when it comes to evaluating the profitability of a bet.
Other models may give you the expected score of the game, but if you don’t know how often that score is achieved or the probability of other scores, how can you properly evaluate the odds you’re given?
You can’t and that’s where we get our edge .
Our sports betting tool
When you login, the first thing you want to do is pick your sport and date so that we load the right bets . You'll then want to choose your sportsbook so that we pull in the right odds .
With that set, we'll then pull in everything you need to evaluate the current bets.
The first thing you'll see is "Win %" and this is the percent of the time we expect each team to outright win the game .
Next, you'll see “Points” which shows you the average score we expect each team to reach .
Then you'll see the standard bets: moneyline, spread, and total . Next to those, you'll see the odds from your book as well as a “Unit Suggestion.”
If the unit suggestion is highlighted in green, that means it is a profitable bet according to our simulations .
We consider 1 unit to be 1% of your bankroll, but you can just use your standard bet size as long as it is an amount you are comfortable losing.
To make sure you have the most up-to-date projections, click the refresh icon in the top right corner of the app before you place your bets.
Our prop betting tool
It’s pretty tough to find big edges in the major betting markets—things like full game moneylines, spreads, and totals—but because the limits are lower on prop bets and there are simply so many of them, there are some great opportunities out there .
All you need to do is put in your bet using the drop downs you'll see on the "Prob Betting" page.
So if you like the over on Gordon Hayward scoring more than 15.5 points, just search for Gordon Hayward, select “more than,” put in 15.5, and select “Points” then hit "Analyze ."
Once that’s done, just put in the odds from your book and you’ll see if our model thinks it’s a profitable bet or not .
You can change the odds on the fly, but if you want to look at the under or change anything in the bet itself, you’ll need to hit the analyze button again .
There are a ton of diamonds in the rough out there when it comes to prop bets, so you don’t want to overlook this calculator .
If you need anything else...
That covers all of the important stuff on our betting tools, but if you have any questions about how things work or anything else at all, you can reach out using the icon in the bottom right of the screen, or sending us an email directly to [email protected]